| 1. |
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY |
| 1.1. |
Report Introduction |
| 1.2. |
Electric Vehicle Definitions |
| 1.3. |
Global EV Sales, 2011 – H1 2024 |
| 1.4. |
Electric Car Sales 2015-2045: BEV, PHEV, FCEV, ICE |
| 1.5. |
Peak Car – Global Car Sales 2015-2045 |
| 1.6. |
Plug-in Car Forecasts: US, China, Europe, and RoW |
| 1.7. |
Regional Snapshot – China |
| 1.8. |
Regional Snapshot – EU + UK + EFTA |
| 1.9. |
Regional Snapshot – USA |
| 2. |
GLOBAL TRENDS & MARKET DRIVERS |
| 2.1. |
Electric Vehicle Definitions |
| 2.2. |
Global EV Sales, 2011 – H1 2024 |
| 2.3. |
A Temporary Slowdown in Growth or Longer-term Issues |
| 2.4. |
BYD and Tesla Remain Biggest EV Sellers |
| 2.5. |
OEM EV Profitability Varies Significantly |
| 2.6. |
Automaker EV Targets |
| 2.7. |
Automotive OEM Targets – Key Adjustments (1) |
| 2.8. |
Automotive OEM Targets – Key Adjustments (2) |
| 2.9. |
Global Plug-in Car Forecasts (1) |
| 2.10. |
Global Plug-in Car Forecasts (2) |
| 2.11. |
Global Electric Car Market Value by Powertrain |
| 2.12. |
Electric Car Motor Trends |
| 2.13. |
Global Battery Chemistry |
| 2.14. |
Average Battery Capacity Forecast |
| 2.15. |
Global Electric Car Battery Demand |
| 2.16. |
Overview of charging levels |
| 2.17. |
Six key market trends in EV charging |
| 2.18. |
General points about the EV charging market |
| 2.19. |
Global charging infrastructure installations |
| 2.20. |
Japan – Low Electrification Rates |
| 2.21. |
South Korea |
| 3. |
USA: POLICY, MARKETS, FORECASTS |
| 3.1. |
USA – Sales, Policy and Players Overview |
| 3.2. |
USA – H1 2024 Sales |
| 3.3. |
US EV Market Shares |
| 3.4. |
US EV Market – Battery Trends |
| 3.5. |
US Federal Tax Credit |
| 3.6. |
US Federal Tax Credit – IRA Update |
| 3.7. |
US Tariffs Tax Credit – Eligible Vehicles |
| 3.8. |
US – SUVs and Crossovers Gain Traction |
| 3.9. |
Electric Pickups Sales Grow |
| 3.10. |
Pickup Energy Consumption |
| 3.11. |
Electric Pickup Benchmarking |
| 3.12. |
Average Range and Battery Capacity US |
| 3.13. |
US Car Pricing |
| 3.14. |
US Vehicle Pricing Forecasts |
| 3.15. |
Li-ion Pack Price and Average EV Car Price |
| 3.16. |
Growth of EV charging infrastructure in US |
| 3.17. |
USA EPA Regulations Overview |
| 3.18. |
EPA Fleet Emissions – 2022 Data Assessment |
| 3.19. |
2022 OEM CO2 Results – USA |
| 3.20. |
ICE Bans Beyond 2035 |
| 3.21. |
Total Vehicle Sales – USA |
| 4. |
EUROPE + UK + EFTA: POLICY, MARKETS, FORECASTS |
| 4.1. |
Europe Summary |
| 4.2. |
Regional Trends: EU + UK + EFTA |
| 4.3. |
Europe – H1 2024 Sales Data |
| 4.4. |
European EV Car Market by Country |
| 4.5. |
BEV vs Car Market Growth – Regional Disparity |
| 4.6. |
Germany – Abrupt Subsidy Cancellation Causes Downturn |
| 4.7. |
Europe Regulations – Overview |
| 4.8. |
EU Passenger Car Emissions |
| 4.9. |
Supercar Manufacturers Dodge ICE Ban in Europe |
| 4.10. |
Impact of Regulations on Supercar Manufacturers |
| 4.11. |
OEM Specific Target Calculation |
| 4.12. |
EU OEM Pools |
| 4.13. |
EU – OEM Targets |
| 4.14. |
2023 CO2 Emissions Performance by OEM – Europe |
| 4.15. |
2025 Potential OEM Emissions Fines |
| 4.16. |
Pathways to Compliance |
| 4.17. |
Plug-in Hybrid Outlook – Europe |
| 4.18. |
Can Pooling Alone Meet Targets? |
| 4.19. |
OEM Compliance BEV Share Forecasts |
| 4.20. |
European EV Market by Brand |
| 4.21. |
European Battery Chemistry Market |
| 4.22. |
EU China BEV Trade Tariffs |
| 4.23. |
EU – Anti-Subsidy Tariffs |
| 4.24. |
EU China Trade Figures |
| 4.25. |
Automotive Reactions to Tariffs |
| 4.26. |
The state of EV charging infrastructure in Europe |
| 4.27. |
Growth of EV charging infrastructure in EU |
| 4.28. |
Private and public charging penetration in Europe |
| 4.29. |
European EV Forecast – Market Shares |
| 4.30. |
European EV Forecast – Annual Sales |
| 5. |
CHINA: POLICY, MARKETS, FORECASTS |
| 5.1. |
China – Sales, Policy and Players Overview |
| 5.2. |
New energy vehicles |
| 5.3. |
China – NEV Market Continues to Grow |
| 5.4. |
Chinese EV Market by OEM |
| 5.5. |
NEV Market – BEV vs PHEV Price Decreases |
| 5.6. |
OEMs Show Continued Interest in PHEVs |
| 5.7. |
PHEV and BEV Price Forecasts |
| 5.8. |
NEV Pricing in China |
| 5.9. |
China Purchase Subsidies Extended |
| 5.10. |
The Dual-Credit System |
| 5.11. |
Increased NEV Sales Triggers Revision of Credit System |
| 5.12. |
Dual-Credit Adjustments |
| 5.13. |
Battery Chemistry Trends China – LFP Increasingly Dominant |
| 5.14. |
The status of public charging in China |
| 5.15. |
Public charging installations in China by province and municipalities |
| 5.16. |
Electric Car Forecast by Powertrain in China |
| 6. |
TECHNOLOGY TRENDS |
| 6.1. |
The ‘Big Three’ in EV |
| 7. |
BATTERIES |
| 7.1. |
Batteries for Electric Cars |
| 7.2. |
What is a Li-ion battery? |
| 7.3. |
Lithium battery chemistries |
| 7.4. |
Types of lithium battery |
| 7.5. |
Key technology developments |
| 7.6. |
Li-ion performance and technology timeline |
| 7.7. |
Readiness level snapshot |
| 7.8. |
Are there alternatives to Li-ion? |
| 7.9. |
Liquid vs. Solid-state Batteries |
| 7.10. |
MG and SAIC to Reveal Solid-State Model in 2025 |
| 7.11. |
The reality of silicon |
| 7.12. |
Current silicon use |
| 7.13. |
Cathode materials – LCO and LFP |
| 7.14. |
Cathode materials – NMC, NCA and LMO |
| 7.15. |
Cathode comparisons |
| 7.16. |
Energy density by cathode |
| 7.17. |
LFP adoption in electric vehicles |
| 7.18. |
Cell Manufacturer Market Shares |
| 7.19. |
Electric Car Battery Manufacturer Market |
| 7.20. |
Shifts in cell and pack design |
| 7.21. |
Modular pack designs |
| 7.22. |
What is Cell-to-pack? |
| 7.23. |
Drivers and Challenges for Cell-to-pack |
| 7.24. |
What is cell-to-chassis/body? |
| 7.25. |
Gravimetric Energy Density and Cell-to-pack Ratio |
| 7.26. |
BYD Blade Battery |
| 7.27. |
CATL cell to pack |
| 7.28. |
Average Battery Capacity Forecast |
| 7.29. |
Cathode Market Share in Li-ion For EVs |
| 7.30. |
Global Electric Car Battery Demand |
| 8. |
ELECTRIC MOTORS |
| 8.1. |
Summary of Traction Motor Types |
| 8.2. |
Convergence on PM Motors by Major Automakers |
| 8.3. |
Motor Type Market Share Forecast |
| 8.4. |
Commentary on Electric Traction Motor Trends in Cars |
| 8.5. |
OEM & Tier 1 Approaches to Eliminate Rare Earths |
| 8.6. |
BEV Power Density Benchmarking |
| 9. |
POWER ELECTRONICS |
| 9.1. |
Power Electronics in Electric Vehicles |
| 9.2. |
What is Power Electronics? |
| 9.3. |
Benchmarking Silicon, Silicon Carbide & Gallium Nitride Semiconductors |
| 9.4. |
Automotive GaN Device Suppliers are Growing |
| 9.5. |
GaN vs SiC potential in the Inverter |
| 9.6. |
Inverter Power Density Increases Over Time |
| 9.7. |
SiC Drives 800V Platforms |
| 9.8. |
GMC Hummer: 800V charging without 800V architecture |
| 9.9. |
Other Split Battery Pack Vehicles: Tesla, Porsche, Ford |
| 9.10. |
Tesla Cybertruck: Split Battery with 800V Architecture |
| 9.11. |
Porsche Taycan: Boost Converter |
| 9.12. |
800V Adoption 2023 |
| 9.13. |
800V Model Announcements in China (2022-2024) |
| 9.14. |
800V For & Against |
| 10. |
FUEL CELL ELECTRIC VEHICLES |
| 10.1. |
What is a Fuel Cell Vehicle? |
| 10.2. |
Outlook for Fuel Cell Passenger Cars |
| 10.3. |
Attraction of Fuel Cell Vehicles |
| 10.4. |
Deployment Barriers for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles |
| 10.5. |
The Hydrogen Economy |
| 10.6. |
The Colors of Hydrogen |
| 10.7. |
System Efficiency Between BEVs and FCEVs |
| 10.8. |
Attitude to FCEV Cars by Company |
| 10.9. |
Price and Range Comparison of BEV and FCEV Cars |
| 10.10. |
Outlook for Fuel Cell Passenger Cars |
| 11. |
FORECASTS |
| 11.1. |
Forecast Assumptions |
| 11.2. |
Global Car Forecasts, Region and Powertrain (1) |
| 11.3. |
Global Car Forecasts, Region and Powertrain (2) |
| 11.4. |
Global Car Forecasts, Region and Powertrain (3) |
| 11.5. |
EV Pricing, 2020-2045 |
| 11.6. |
Global Electric Car Market Value by Powertrain |
| 11.7. |
Average Battery Capacity Forecast |
| 11.8. |
Cathode Market Share in Li-ion For EVs |
| 11.9. |
Global Electric Car Battery Demand |
| 11.10. |
Battery Demand for Plug-in Vehicles by Drivetrain |
